Nate,
it seems your instincts are in pretty good shape :p
But the murderer isn't the butler. Kaspersky is innocent.
Here is what I did:
1) Yesterday night, just before shutting down my pc, I scheduled a full backup to run very early this morning, using the "Later" option
2) This morning the PC booted without any problem. It seems unless VDIFF is involved the PC doesn't hang.
3) I scheduled a continuous incremental backup to start in a few mins, powered off, waited, powered back on, the PC this time hung.
4) I switched off, back on, started in safe mode, turned off Kaspersky from msconfig, restarted in normal mode, the PC still hung
5) Same as before, turned Kaspersky back on, turned Intel Matrix Storage Event Monitor off, restarted, this time the PC booted. I ran SPD interface and the process was running
So the murderer is Intel.
In order to reproduce my exact situation you might need a machine with a P35 chipset, to make sure the same drivers will be used, though it could happen with different chipsets too. The motherboard, drivers and console version are in the OP.
BTW, switching ShadowProtect Service's startup mode to "Automatic (Delayed Start)" is an effective workaround for me, so no biggie. You guys might want to install the service with that startup option directly, it just makes sense to me. Even when there aren't incompatibilities, that options still speeds up the PC startup process whenever "auto execution of unexecuted tasks" is active, since boot operations don't have to fight for resources with a backup happening concurrently.
Ah, and you didn't tell me if it's better I request a 3.2 ISO in case in find myself in need of doing a bare metal restore before my evaluation process ends (knock on wood).